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Rupee@70: Is Indian currency still overvalued? Cad Vs Inr

Rupee@70: Is Indian currency still overvalued? Cad Vs Inr

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Cad Vs Inr,Rupee@70: Is Indian currency still overvalued?
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Currency experts believe that 70 to a dollar may not be the bottom and the rupee could weaken further in the coming days.

. The Indian currency breached the dreaded 70-mark against the US dollar on Tuesday, weighed down by the big meltdown in the

players say fears of a widening trade and current account deficit are also putting pressure on the rupee.

The Indian currency has been slipping steadily over the past several months thanks to the surge in global crude oil prices. India’s trade deficit touched an all-time high of $18.02 billion in July this year, thanks to the high oil import bill.

Currency experts believe that 70 to a dollar may not be the bottom and the rupee could weaken further in the coming days. The one key factor that is keeping market players on the tenterhooks is the volatility in the equity market as any FII outflow could only widen the current account deficit.

Meanwhile, a political slugfest has begun between the ruling BJP and the Opposition parties over the currency crisis. The Congress blames it all on the Modi government’s wrong economic policies, while the BJP points the finger at the hostile external environment. On

Cad Vs Inr,Rupee@70: Is Indian currency still overvalued?
’s India Development Debate Cad Vs Inr , money market experts and economists discussed the rupee meltdown and what it means to the country’s economy and market. Here are some key takeaways:

Over the past four years, in real terms, the rupee has actually appreciated and even now we haven’t gone back to where we were four years ago in terms of REER. Frankly, in economic terms, it would have been a lot worse if the rupee hadn’t actually depreciated. India is not alone on this. Almost all the currencies, including the developed market economic currencies, have been depreciating against the dollar. In a situation of this kind, I think there are certain positives in what has happened but we need to be careful because whatever that is happening is happening because of extremely unusual global conditions. Our domestic condition — as far as the economy is concerned — is okay.

There are two basic vulnerabilities. Our Current Account Deficit (CAD) is worsening over time. This year will be the worst. Our FDI has been coming down as well. That’s not a healthy situation. On medium term we have to address core issues of trade, exports, CAD and producing smartphones within our own country. RBI intervention is helping. We are borrowing fickle money to pay for our oil and smartphones. To some extent, rupee depreciation has to be allowed to bring balance back in shape.

RBI has done its job pretty well on this front of forex management. This is money well used. The rupee is a welcome correction but pace is rapid. We need not worry. We are not

. Our fundamentals are far stronger. As of now, rupee is still marginally overvalued. Given how volatile atmosphere this is politically, oil prices could shoot up. If oil prices move up further, it will have impact on inflation and current account deficit.

ASHIMA GOYAL, MEMBER, PMEAC & PROFESSOR, INDIRA GANDHI INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH

We have seen in the past that rupee has over shot and come back pretty quickly. I would expect a reversal very quickly. Fair value of rupee around 70 is fine. Oil crisis has now stabilised and both growth and inflation numbers have been good. At this level, this much depreciation is required. During the past two years, nominal value of rupee has been a bit too steady.

Cad Vs Inr,Rupee@70: Is Indian currency still overvalued?
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