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Square earnings: Cash may Boost your wallet more than the company — for now
Square hopes Boost loyalty program will drive use of Cash, but it will probably lose money in the short term
One analyst saw an acceleration in Cash app downloads during May and June.
Square Inc. got its start by enabling small businesses to accept credit-card payments, but its future could be more focused on Cash.
The company’s consumer-oriented initiatives are centered on money-transfer platform Square Cash, which now lets users do more than just send money to friends. Cash has received a fair bit of attention in recent quarters because it’s where Square
, but other elements of the platform could be more interesting to users without cryptocurrency. Cash made debit cards widely available to users a good year before PayPal Holdings Inc.’s
, and during the second quarter, Square officially rolled out Boost, a program that gives discounts at popular food establishments in exchange for use of a Cash card.
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With Boost, a user can choose one of a few discounts to take advantage of in a given day, including 15% off Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
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 or Shake Shack Inc.
 purchases, or 5% off at Whole Foods Market. The deals are attractive, and Square will presumably lose money on them in the near future. The bigger goal, however, is to get (younger) users to conduct more of their spending on Square’s card. In that case, Square might still lose money on these discounts but earn transaction fees on purchases made with the Cash card at other merchants.
MarketWatch wrote about an early version of this program, which was then just focused on coffee,
. At the time, Mizuho analyst Thomas McCrohan estimated that if Square could use coffee discounts to convince 5% of coffee-drinking millennials to conduct their food-away-from-home spending on the Cash card, it would generate $100 million in incremental revenue for the company annually within two years.
“No other generation spends as much of their annual food budget on meals ‘away from home,’†wrote McCrohan, who has a buy rating and $75 price target on the stock.
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Square’s latest efforts arguably make the program more broadly appealing, and Boost might eventually expand beyond the U.S. The company
earlier this year, though Boost isn’t available there yet. Management may share more of its long-term strategy for Cash and the consumer business when Square reports second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday.
Also of interest will be any new statistics on the overall Cash app user base. Instinet analyst Dan Dolev, who has an $82 price target on the shares, said that he saw an acceleration in Cash app downloads in May and June, based on his recent analysis.
Wrote Dolev: “Is Square a bitcoin play? We disagree, and note that Cash App downloads have been accelerating despite the slump in bitcoin
 prices.†He has a buy rating on the stock.
, Square in June projected adjusted earnings per share of 9 cents to 11 cents for the second quarter, up from 7 cents a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect adjusted EPS of 11 cents on average. According to Estimize, which crowdsources estimates from hedge funds, academics and others, the average projection calls for 12 cents.
Square expects to report revenue of $744 million to $764 million for the second quarter, up from $551.5 million a year earlier. The FactSet consensus estimate is for $777.8 million, while the Estimize consensus is for $783.4 million.
Square issued an adjusted revenue forecast of $362 million to $367 million when it updated its outlook back in June. The FactSet consensus calls for $366.4 million, up from $240.4 million in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted revenue subtracts transaction costs.
Square shares have gained following six of the company’s last 10 earnings reports. The stock has gained 151% over the past 12 months, compared with a 13% rise for the S&P 500
Of the 36 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover the stock, 14 rate it a buy, 18 rate it a hold, and four label it a sell. The average price target is $64.03, 2.7% below current levels.
Square’s Weebly acquisition closed during the quarter, and management will likely be pressed to provide more information about cross-selling opportunities as well as the overall vision for the web-creation platform now that it’s under Square’s umbrella.
“While a continued move upmarket and expansion of high-margin products in the U.S. bode well for domestic growth, we expect Weebly will accelerate Square’s international/omnichannel expansion strategy (key areas of focus),†Deutsche Bank analyst Bryan Keane wrote.
In general, investors will be looking for updates on Square’s efforts to expand internationally. The company has operations in the U.K., Japan, Canada and Australia. Square Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar said on a call with reporters last quarter that Square still had “a lot of work to do†in terms of
, though she said that events were helping the company boost its image in Australia.
Also in regards to the U.K., management may comment on a recent regulatory review taking place there. News of this review, which is in the early stages and focused on merchant acquirers, prompted a selloff earlier this week in shares of Square, Global Payments Inc.
 and other payments companies that process transactions on behalf of merchants. Executives at several companies, including Visa Inc.
 and First Data Corp.
Analysts generally deemed the selloff overblown, with at least one suggesting the review could actually help Square.
“While incumbent providers may face more of an uphill battle, we believe regulation could be positive for both Square and PayPal as they work to penetrate the brick-and mortar U.K. market, Bitcoin Wallet Uk Paypal ,
to outperform from neutral. He has a price target of $81 (a perfect square) on the stock.
Square’s Capital loan business will also be in focus when the company reports second-quarter results, especially since eBay Inc.
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Square expands business-lending program through eBay partnership
“We believe the eBay/Square partnership will benefit both companies as the collaboration will enhance the financing process for eBay’s sellers as well as help Square expand its reach in non-Square merchant lending,†wrote Stifel analyst Scott Devitt, who rates the stock a buy. He raised his price target Monday to $72 from $66.
Square Capital remains controversial, with some analysts arguing that the business makes the company
“While Square retains only a small portion of the loans it originates through Square Capital on its balance sheet and sells most of them to investors, one of the painful lessons learned in early 2016 by investors in the stocks of online marketplace lenders such as LendingClub
 is that firms that sell the loans they originate are still vulnerable to volatility in the credit market that could negatively impact perceptions of their growth trajectories,†wrote BTIG analyst Mark Palmer, who rates the stock a sell with a $30 price target.
Finally, look for more information about Square’s traction with larger sellers and uptake of the company’s various subscription offerings, such as payroll and invoicing products. In addition, watch for commentary on Square’s plans for its FDIC industrial-loan charter application, which it
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Emily Bary is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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