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Commerzbank Forecasts Avg. $1,325 Gold Price In 2018

should rise for a third straight year in 2018, aided by low or negative realinterest rates and ongoing political uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe, saidCommerzbank in its outlook for the new year.

should outperform due to industrial demand, while thisyear’s biggest gainer – palladium – won’t keep rising since “the tailwind fromthe automotive sector should abate.”

Commerzbankforecast that gold will average $1,325 an ounce in 2018, with an average of$1,300 in the first two quarters of the year and $1,350 in the final two.Silver was seen averaging $17.25 in 2018.

Spotgold was around $1,247 an ounce as of the release of the outlook, while silverwas around $15.80. Gold was still up by 8% for the year although well down fromthe September peak.

“Thegold price is likely next year to continue the rise it commenced two yearsago,” Commerzbank said. “The main contributory factors here remain theextremely loose monetary policy pursued by nearly all key central banks,resulting in ongoing very low to negative interest rates. Political uncertaintyis also likely to be a constant feature throughout the year.”

Thepolitical uncertainty includes the “difficult process” of forming a governmentin Germany and probable parliamentary elections next spring in Italy, the banksaid. The Catalonia separatist and Brexit issues also will remain a focus ofmarkets.

“Furthermore,there is no reason to assume that the second year of Donald Trump’s presidencyin the U.S. will run any more smoothly in terms of domestic or foreign policythan the first one did,” Commerzbank said.

Further,Commerzbank added, geopolitical concerns remain, including those surroundingNorth Korea, the Middle East, Venezuela, plus tensions between the West andRussia due to the probe over Russian influence in the U.S. election andUkraine.

U.S.policymakers are expected to keep raising U.S. interest rates in 2018. However,that does not preclude a rising gold price, since other central banks areexpected to do the same, Commerzbank said. With other central bankers hiking,this would limit any rate-related gains for the U.S. dollar.

“Physicalgold demand should generate somewhat more tailwind next year,” Commerzbanksaid, characterizing this buying as “fairly subdued” in 2017.  

Silverunderperformed gold in 2018, Commerzbank said, pointing out that whileindustrial demand grew, purchases for bars and coins slumped by more than athird, thereby hurting overall demand. Silver is low historically with agold/silver ratio of around 78, meaning it takes 78 ounces of silver to buy anounce of gold. By contrast, it was 67.5 in early March.

“Hence,silver has catch-up potential vs. gold,” Commerzbank said. “The positiveeconomic development is likewise an argument in favor of silver because itmeans that industrial demand is likely to become even more dynamic – whichaccounts for more than half of total silver demand. It is hard to imagine thatdemand for bars and coins will fall as sharply again. Given that it is entirelyconceivable that demand for bars and coins will be stronger, as well as demandfrom ETF [exchange-traded-fund] investors, demand growth is likely to be evenmore pronounced.”

Commerzbankforecast that palladium will average $1,010 an ounce in 2018 and platinum willaverage $975. The palladium average was put at $1,025 in the first two quartersand $1,000 in the final two. Platinum is seen showing more improvement over thecourse of the year, with an average first-quarter average forecast of $925 andan average of $1,000 in the fourth quarter.

Bothmetals are used in auto catalysts, with palladium underpinned in 2017 since itgoes into the gasoline-powered cars that make up the world’s two largest automarkets – the U.S. and China.

“Aftersoaring by approx. 50% to a 17-year high this year, we believe that the upsidepotential for the palladium price is largely used up,” Commerzbank said.“Though a further rise cannot be ruled out in the short term, the substitution[toward platinum] debate is likely to put the brakes on the high-flying prices.What is more, car sales in the U.S. and China are hardly likely to maintaintheir high level of recent months….”

Meanwhile,platinum should follow gold higher, Commerzbank said.

“Aswe envisage a rising gold price, platinum should also make gains – though thefundamental data mean that platinum is hardly likely to develop any intrinsicstrength.”

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and may not reflect those of

The author has made every effort to ensure accuracy of information provided; however, neither Kitco Metals Inc. nor the author can guarantee such accuracy. This article is strictly for informational purposes only. It is not a solicitation to make any exchange in commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Kitco Metals Inc. and the author of this article do not accept culpability for losses and/ or damages arising from the use of this publication.

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