The Top 3 Major Trends in Cryptocurrencies You Should Know About
Bitcoin’s Next All-Time High Could Be Five Years Away, According to Crypto VC
Bitcoin’s Next All-Time High Could Be Five Years Away, According to Crypto VC
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An analysis of bitcoin’s last three hyper bull markets suggests it may take another five years for a new high to emerge, according to Anthony Pompliano, founder and partner of Morgan Creek Capital Management. Pompliano’s outlook contrasted sharply with his previous prediction calling for $50,000 bitcoin by year-end.
A more thorough examination of the bitcoin market reveals a much different reality than the one put forth by Pompliano and others at the beginning of the year. In a recent post, he argued that bitcoin is unlikely to hit a new high anytime soon.
“Parabolic increases in price continue to take longer — each parabolic run is measured from the last all-time high to the new all-time high. The first rapid price appreciation took just over 300 days (2010-2011) and the second took over 900 days (2011-2013). The last parabolic price increase peaked at ~$20,000 (2013-2017) and took almost 1,500 days to complete.”
Although past performance is not indicative of the future, Pompliano’s latest view is more consistent with long-term trends in the bitcoin price. Based on this examination, it will take more than 2,000 days, or mid-2023, for bitcoin to notch a new high. Previously, Morgan Creek Capital Management had
the network effect to launch bitcoin toward $500,000 by 2024.
bitcoin had declined more than 70% from its December peak. Only one other bear market shaved more percentage points off bitcoin Cryptocurrency Latest Trends , bitcoin had declined more than 70% from its December peak. Only one other bear market shaved more percentage points off bitcoin, according to
. Bitcoin’s most famous bear – Nov. 30, 2013 to Feb. 21, 2017 – saw values declined by as much as 83%. This period also has the distinction of being the longest-ever bear market for bitcoin.
Going back to 2012, bitcoin has faced six bear markets – all of which resulted in the loss of at least 36%.
An analysis of bitcoin’s trade volumes (or lack thereof) suggests that the current bear market may persist for much longer than many had initially presumed. This is further corroborated by declining searches for terms like “bitcoin” and “cryptocurrency.” These search terms are currently trending at
, a sign that interest among first-timers is declining. Google trends are an indirect measure of investors’ interest in cryptocurrency. At the height of the bull market, terms like “bitcoin” and “cryptocurrency” had the highest trend score, according to Google.
To hasten adoption, cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase have developed new custody services to attract institutional capital. Efforts to securitize bitcoin through exchange-traded funds are also underway. Developments on both fronts could reduce the time it takes for bitcoin to string together another parabolic run like the ones described by Pompliano. However, regardless of when the next rally occurs, bitcoin’s long-term holders have always been rewarded for their patience.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He hol
ds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
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Sam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.
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Bitcoin’s bullish breakout showed signs of progressing on Tuesday, as prices came within striking distance of $7,000 – a level that was last breached on Aug. 7.
The bitcoin price reached a high of $6, 963.00 on Bitfinex Cryptocurrency Latest Trends , the highest in three weeks. The leading digital currency is up 3% over the past 24 hours for a total market cap of $119.4 billion.
Trading volumes have also improved, with total exchange turnover in BTC valued at $4.2 billion. With Tuesday’s gain, bitcoin has recovered $1,000 from its most recent swing low.
on Monday, bitcoin’s price is testing the 200-day moving average after successfully crossing the 50-day MA. Relative strength is approaching 70, which points to strong upward momentum.
The wider cryptocurrency market followed bitcoin’s lead on Tuesday, with all major altcoins rising. IOTA’s native MIOTA token was the top performer, rising 14.9% to $0.705. EOS, Stellar and Litecoin each rose more than 4%.
At press time, the cryptocurrency market’s total capitalization was $225.4 billion, the highest in almost three weeks. Trading volumes are up 22% over the last 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. Since bottoming at $189 billion, cryptocurrencies have recovered $36 billion in market capitalization.
As Hacked reported Monday, bearish bets on bitcoin futures declined to record lows last week, a sign that the worst of the market downtrend had passed. Although the market is still in a net short position, that position totaled 1,266 contracts for the week ended Aug. 21. Overall, short positions declined by 210 contracts to 3,426, according to the latest Commitments of Traders report.
Erik Voorhees, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange ShapeShift, recently told
that bitcoin was already showing signs of a turnaround.
“We’re done with the majority of the collapse,” Voorhees said, adding that “anything in the $5,000 to $8,000 range for bitcoin is pretty reasonable…”
that bitcoin will trek toward new all-time highs in as little as six months. This view contrasts markedly from the one Hacked presented on Sunday showing that it could take another
Bitcoin touched a yearly low of $5,755 in June but has managed to spend the majority of its time above $6,000. The leading digital currency has also exhibited a tighter trading range since its most recent fall below $6,000 on Aug. 14. Bitcoin’s volatility, as represented by its daily trading range, is hovering near yearly lows.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin Cryptocurrency Latest Trends , but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions
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Sam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.
Two Blockchain Pioneers on Navigating Bitcoin’s Recovery
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Litecoin Creator Charlie Lee is a blockchain pioneer who has been around the crypto block enough times to see several bear markets. He joined CNBC to discuss the bitcoin price, which has lost more than two-thirds of its value since its year-end 2017 peak. For Lee, it’s only a matter of time before the bitcoin price returns to the same lofty levels of nearly $20,000, but how much time is anybody’s guess.
“It’s hard to predict prices… Sometimes it comes back within six months/a year; sometimes it takes three or four years,”
Lee isn’t the only one that feels this way. Erik Voorhees, the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange ShapeShift, similarly
that the market turnaround may not happen overnight, however “the rate of collapse has slowed considerably.”
Voorhees, too, has seen his share of bitcoin downtrends, pointing to the bubble of 2013 after which time bitcoin remained range bound for a couple of years. It sounds as though the worst is over, as he believes “we’re done with the majority of the collapse.”
The bitcoin price could still fall as much as 30%, however, but “anything in the $5,000 to $8,000 range for bitcoin is pretty reasonable and in a couple of years will look like a great spot,” Voorhees said.
Like bitcoin, Litecoin has had a bumpy ride, as evidenced by a 75% decline in LTC year-to-date. Adding insult to injury, Litecoin with a market cap of $3.5 billion lost its No. 6 spot among the leading cryptocurrencies to Stellar (XLM), whose market cap hovers at more than $4 billion.
“This year, there has been so much adoption in bitcoin and Litecoin but the prices have dropped 60-70%. It’s all about speculation these days. But in the future, the price will reflect the success of cryptocurrencies,” Lee said.
Last year, the Litecoin creator liquidated his Litecoin portfolio to avoid any “conflict of interest” and in the nature of decentralization. The timing could have been better, as the Litecoin price sold-off shortly thereafter. He won’t repurchase his Litecoin in the foreseeable future or possibly ever. But by the same token, investors might like to see the founder of the cryptocurrency they’ve invested their savings in have a personal vested interest in the performance of the coin.
As for investors, Lee recommends “buying on the way down to dollar cost average your buy-in” but don’t mortgage your home for coins only to watch your portfolio shrink 80%.
Meanwhile, in the current market environment, as in past downturns, Lee observed that “it’s a good time for people to … have their heads down and actually work and get stuff done.”
The Litecoin Foundation is hosting a Litecoin Summit Sept. 14-15 in San Francisco, themes for which include cryptocurrency adoption and the scalability of bitcoin and Litecoin with a focus on technology such as the Lightning Network.
Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions
. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom
Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
Gerelyn has been covering ICOs and the cryptocurrency market since mid-2017. She's also reported on fintech more broadly in addition to asset management, having previously specialized in institutional investing. She owns some BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin Price Approaches $6,750 as Bearish Sentiment Subsides
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Bitcoin’s price traded within a narrow range on Monday after data from the futures market revealed that institutions and speculators were no longer betting against the virtual currency, a sign that the worst of the downturn may be over.
The bitcoin price was trading at $6,715 on Bitfinex, where it was little changed compared with the previous day. The digital currency’s trading range is currently $90, one of the narrowest of the year. BTC spent a great deal of Friday’s session hovering within an $80-$90 range before eventually surpassing $150 for the day.
Bitcoin has seen its value appreciate by 4.1% over the past seven days. The market peaked at $6,899 last Tuesday after Bitmex halted trading temporarily. In subsequent sessions, the bitcoin price reached a high of $6,799, which is more indicative of supply/demand forces.
At current values, the leading digital currency is valued at $116 billion for a 53.3% share of the overall market. Overall trading volumes in BTC averaged just $3.4 billion, which is well below levels generally observed during a market uptrend.
As the following chart illustrates, BTC’s technical indicators are strong. Relative strength is approaching 60 and the MACD is in positive territory. Immediate resistance is located at the 200-day moving average, which currently resides around $6,950.
Non-commercial contracts of bitcoin futures plunged last week to the lowest level on record, according to the latest
report issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The net position on bitcoin futures totaled -1,266 for the week ended Aug. 21. Short positions totaled 3,426 compared with 2,160 long positions. Shorts fell by 210 contracts compared with the previous week while longs rose by 56. Although the market is still net short, the latest data suggest bearish speculators were either flipping their positions or exiting the market entirely.
As Hacked reported last week, bitcoin futures have contributed to a
in volatility in the underlying spot price. Volatility appears to be declining even faster as futures trading continues to pick up across the board.
The volume of bitcoin futures listed on CME Group doubled in July and rose in August, all while virtual currency exchanges such as Coinbase witnessed a sharp drop in turnover. Both CME and CBOE are under pressure as Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch its own bitcoin futures platform in November.
Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.
Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions
. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom
Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
Sam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.
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